The OPEC Secretariat has, for many years, produced a medium- to long-term outlook of the global oil scene. Results and analysis have offered insights into many important issues that producing countries and the oil industry have been, and may be confronted with in the future. These have long been shared in various international fora where the interests and concerns of all players are discussed.
Executive summary:

Demand for energy is set to continue to grow and oil is expected to maintain its leading position in meeting the world’s growing energy needs for the foreseeable future. In our reference case, with an average global economic growth rate of 3.5% per annum (purchasing power parity basis), and oil prices assumed to remain in the $50-60/b range in nominal terms for much of the projection period, oil demand is set to rise from the 2005 level of 83 mb/d to 118 mb/d by 2030. This also assumes that no particular departure in trends for energy policies and technologies takes place. This is a very important caveat for there are inherent downside risks to demand, something that is specifically addressed in this outlook.

OECD countries, currently accounting for close to 60% of world oil demand, see a further growth of 4 mb/d by 2030, reaching 53 mb/d. Developing countries account for most of the rise in the reference case, with consumption doubling from 29 mb/d to 58 mb/d. Asian developing countries account for an increase of 20 mb/d, which represents more than two-thirds of the growth in all developing countries. Nevertheless, energy poverty will remain an important issue over this period. By 2030, developing countries will consume, on average, approximately five times less oil per person, compared with OECD countries.

The transportation sector will be the main source of future oil demand increases. Growth in the OECD is expected to continue to rise, although saturation effects should increasingly have an impact upon the growth in passenger car ownership. The potential for growth in the stock of cars, buses and lorries, however, is far greater in developing countries. For example, two-thirds of the world’s population currently live in countries with less than one car per 20 people. The total stock of cars is expected to rise from 700 million in 2005 to 1.2 billion by 2030, and the global volume of commercial vehicles is anticipated to more than double.